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##### Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning March 9th, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on wallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week and month ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 9th, 2020.

# Wall Street braces for more market volatility as wild swings become the ‘new normal’ amid coronavirus - (Source)

The S&P 500 has never behaved like this, but Wall Street strategists say get used to it.
Investors just witnessed the equity benchmark swinging up or down 2% for four days straight in the face of the coronavirus panic.
In the index’s history dating back to 1927, this is the first time the S&P 500 had a week of alternating gains and losses of more than 2% from Monday through Thursday, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Daily swings like this over a two-week period were only seen at the peak of the financial crisis and in 2011 when U.S. sovereign debt got its first-ever downgrade, the firm said.
“The message to all investors is that they should expect this volatility to continue. This should be considered the new normal going forward,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E-Trade.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped north of 1,000 points twice in the past week, only to erase the quadruple-digit gains in the subsequent sessions. The coronavirus outbreak kept investors on edge as global cases of the infections surpassed 100,000. It’s also spreading rapidly in the U.S. California has declared a state of emergency, while the number of cases in New York reached 33.
“Uncertainty breeds greater market volatility,” Keith Lerner, SunTrust’s chief market strategist, said in a note. “Much is still unknown about how severe and widespread the coronavirus will become. From a market perspective, what we are seeing is uncomfortable but somewhat typical after shock periods.”

# More stimulus?

So far, the actions from global central banks and governments in response to the outbreak haven’t triggered a sustainable rebound.
The Federal Reserve’s first emergency rate cut since the financial crisis did little to calm investor anxiety. President Donald Trump on Friday signed a sweeping spending bill with an$8.3 billion packageto aid prevention efforts to produce a vaccine for the deadly disease, but stocks extended their heavy rout that day. “The market is recognizing the global authorities are responding to this,” said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report. “If the market begins to worry they are not doing that sufficiently, then I think we are going to go down ugly. It is helping stocks hold up.” Essaye said any further stimulus from China and a decent-sized fiscal package from Germany would be positive to the market, but he doesn’t expect the moves to create a huge rebound. The fed funds future market is now pricing in the possibility of the U.S. central bank cutting by 75 basis points at its March 17-18 meeting. # Where is the bottom? Many on Wall Street expect the market to fall further before recovering as the health crisis unfolds. Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank’s chief equity strategist, sees a bottom for the S&P 500 in the second quarter after stocks falling as much as 20% from their recent peak. “The magnitude of the selloff in the S&P 500 so far has further to go; and in terms of duration, just two weeks in, it is much too early to declare this episode as being done,” Chadha said in a note. “We do view the impacts on macro and earnings growth as being relatively short-lived and the market eventually looking through them.” Deutsche Bank maintained its year-end target of 3,250 for the S&P 500, which would represent a 10% gain from here and a flat return for 2020. Strategists are also urging patience during this heightened volatility, cautioning against panic selling. “It is during times like these that investors need to maintain a longer-term perspective and stick to their investment process rather than making knee-jerk, binary decisions,” Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note. # This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!) # Major Indices for this past week: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!) # Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!) # Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!) # Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!) ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!) ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!) ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!) ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!) ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!) # Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # S&P Sectors for the Past Week: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART! # Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!) ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!) ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!) # A "Run of the Mill" Drawdown If you're like us, you've heard a lot of people reference the recent equity declines as a sign that the market is pricing in some sort of Armageddon in the US economy. While comments like that make for great soundbites, a little perspective is in order. Since the S&P 500's high on February 19th, the S&P 500 is down 12.8%. In the chart below, we show the S&P 500's annual maximum drawdown by year going back to 1928. In the entire history of the index, the median maximum drawdown from a YTD high is 13.05%. In other words, this year's decline is actually less than normal. Perhaps due to the fact that we have only seen one larger-than-average drawdown in the last eight years is why this one feels so bad. The fact that the current decline has only been inline with the historical norm raises a number of questions. For example, if the market has already priced in the worst-case scenario, going out and adding some equity exposure would be a no brainer. However, if we're only in the midst of a 'normal' drawdown in the equity market as the coronavirus outbreak threatens to put the economy into a recession, one could argue that things for the stock market could get worse before they get better, especially when we know that the market can be prone to over-reaction in both directions. The fact is that nobody knows right now how this entire outbreak will play out. If it really is a black swan, the market definitely has further to fall and now would present a great opportunity to sell more equities. However, if it proves to be temporary and after a quarter or two resolves itself and the economy gets back on the path it was on at the start of the year, then the magnitude of the current decline is probably appropriate. As they say, that's what makes a market! ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # Long-Term Treasuries Go Haywire Take a good luck at today's moves in long-term US Treasury yields, because chances are you won't see moves of this magnitude again soon. Let's start with the yield on the 30-year US Treasury. Today's decline of 29 basis points in the yield will go down as the largest one-day decline in the yield on the 30-year since 2009. For some perspective, there have only been 25 other days since 1977 where the yield saw a larger one day decline. ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) That doesn't even tell the whole story, though. As shown in the chart below, every other time the yield saw a sharper one-day decline, the actual yield of the 30-year was much higher, and in most other cases it was much, much higher. ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) To show this another way, the percentage change in the yield on the 30-year has never been seen before, and it's not even close. Now, before the chart crime police come calling, we realize showing a percentage change of a percentage is not the most accurate representation, but we wanted to show this for illustrative purposes only. ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Finally, with long-term interest rates plummetting we wanted to provide an update on the performance of the Austrian 100-year bond. That's now back at record highs, begging the question, why is the US not flooding the market with long-term debt? ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # It Doesn't Get Much Worse Than This For Crude Oil Crude oil prices are down close to 10% today in what is shaping up to be the worst day for crude oil since late 2014. That's more than five years. ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Today's decline is pretty much a continuation of what has been a one-way trade for the commodity ever since the US drone strike on Iranian general Soleimani. The last time prices were this low was around Christmas 2018. ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) With today's decline, crude oil is now off to its worst start to a year in a generation falling 32%. Since 1984, the only other year that was worse was 1986 when the year started out with a decline of 50% through March 6th. If you're looking for a bright spot, in 1986, prices rose 36% over the remainder of the year. The only other year where crude oil kicked off the year with a 30% decline was in 1991 after the first Iraq war. Over the remainder of that year, prices rose a more modest 5%. ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaks Below 1% Despite strong market gains on Wednesday, March 4, 2020, the on-the-run 10-year Treasury yield ended the day below 1% for the first time ever and has posted additional declines in real time, sitting at 0.92% intraday as this blog is being written. “The decline in yields has been remarkable,” said LPL Research Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “The 10-year Treasury yield has dipped below 1%, and today’s declines are likely to make the recent run lower the largest decline of the cycle.” As shown in LPL Research’s chart of the day, the current decline in the 10-year Treasury yield without a meaningful reversal (defined as at least 0.75%) is approaching the decline seen in 2011 and 2012 and would need about another two months to be the longest decline in length of time. At the same time, no prior decline has lasted forever and a pattern of declines and increases has been normal. ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) What are some things that can push the 10-year Treasury yield lower? • A shrinking but still sizable yield advantage over other developed market sovereign debt • Added stock volatility if downside risks to economic growth from the coronavirus increase • A larger potential premium over shorter-term yields if the Federal Reserve aggressively cuts interest rates What are some things that can push the 10-year Treasury yield higher? • A second half economic rebound acting a catalyst for a Treasury sell-off • As yields move lower, investors may increasingly seek more attractive sources of income • Any dollar weakness could lead to some selling by international investors • Longer maturity Treasuries are looking like an increasingly crowded trade, potentially adding energy to any sell-off On balance, our view remains that the prospect of an economic rebound over the second half points to the potential for interest rates moving higher. At the same time, we still see some advantage in the potential diversification benefits of intermediate maturity high-quality bonds, especially during periods of market stress. We continue to recommend that suitable investors consider keeping a bond portfolio’s sensitivity to changes in interest rates below that of the benchmark Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index by emphasizing short to intermediate maturity bonds, but do not believe it’s time to pile into very short maturities despite the 10-year Treasury yield sitting at historically low levels. # U.S. Jobs Growth Marches On While stock markets continue to be extremely volatile as they come to terms with how the coronavirus may affect global growth, the U.S. job market has remained remarkably robust. Continued U.S. jobs data resilience in the face of headwinds from the coronavirus outbreak may be a key factor in prolonging the expansion, given how important the strength of the U.S. consumer has been late into this expansion. The U.S. Department of Labor today reported that U.S. nonfarm payroll data had a strong showing of 273,000 jobs added in February, topping the expectation of every Bloomberg-surveyed economist, with an additional upward revision of 85,000 additional jobs for December 2019 and January 2020. This has brought the current unemployment rate back to its 50-year low of 3.5%. So far, it appears it’s too soon for any effects of the coronavirus to have been felt in the jobs numbers. (Note: The survey takes place in the middle of each month.) On Wednesday, ADP released its private payroll data (excluding government jobs), which increased by 183,000 in February, also handily beating market expectations. Most of these jobs were added in the service sector, with 44,000 added in the leisure and hospitality sector, and another 31,000 in trade/transportation/utilities. Both of these areas could be at risk of potential cutbacks if consumers start to avoid eating out or other leisure pursuits due to coronavirus fears. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, payrolls remain strong, and any effects of the virus outbreaks most likely would be felt in coming months. ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) “February’s jobs report shows the 113th straight month that the U.S. jobs market has grown,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “That’s an incredible run and highlights how the U.S. consumer has become key to extending the expansion, especially given setbacks to global growth from the coronavirus outbreak.” While there is bound to be some drag on future jobs data from the coronavirus-related slowdown, we would anticipate that the effects of this may be transitory. We believe economic fundamentals continue to suggest the possibility of a second-half-of-the–year economic rebound. # Down January & Down February: S&P 500 Posts Full-Year Gain Just 43.75% of Time The combination of a down January and a down February has come about 17 times, including this year, going back to 1950. Rest of the year and full-year performance has taken a rather sizable hit following the previous 16 occurrences. March through December S&P 500 average performance drops to 2.32% compared to 7.69% in all years. Full-year performance is even worse with S&P 500 average turning to a loss of 4.91% compared to an average gain of 9.14% in all years. All hope for 2020 is not lost as seven of the 16 past down January and down February years did go on to log gains over the last 10 months and full year while six enjoyed double-digit gains from March to December. ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # Take Caution After Emergency Rate Cut Today’s big rally was an encouraging sign that the markets are becoming more comfortable with the public health, monetary and political handling of the situation. But the history of these “emergency” or “surprise” rate cuts by the Fed between meetings suggest some caution remains in order. The table here shows that these surprise cuts between meetings have really only “worked” once in the past 20+ years. In 1998 when the Fed and the plunge protection team acted swiftly and in a coordinated manner to stave off the fallout from the financial crisis caused by the collapse of the Russian ruble and the highly leveraged Long Term Capital Management hedge fund markets responded well. This was not the case during the extended bear markets of 2001-2002 and 2007-2009. Bottom line: if this is a short-term impact like the 1998 financial crisis the market should recover sooner rather than later. But if the economic impact of coronavirus virus is prolonged, the market is more likely to languish. ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead- •$ADBE
• $DKS •$AVGO
• $THO •$ULTA
• $WORK •$DG
• $SFIX •$SOGO
• $DOCU •$INO
• $CLDR •$INSG
• $SOHU •$BTAI
• $ORCL •$HEAR
• $NVAX •$ADDYY
• $GPS •$AKBA
• $PDD •$CYOU
• $FNV •$MTNB
• $NERV •$MTN
• $BEST •$PRTY
• $NINE •$AZUL
• $UNFI •$PRPL
• $VSLR •$KLZE
• $ZUO •$DVAX
• $EXPR •$VRA
• $AXSM •$CDMO
• $CASY ###### (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!) ###### (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!) Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers: # Monday 3.9.20 Before Market Open: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) # Monday 3.9.20 After Market Close: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) # Tuesday 3.10.20 Before Market Open: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) # Tuesday 3.10.20 After Market Close: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) # Wednesday 3.11.20 Before Market Open: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) # Wednesday 3.11.20 After Market Close: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) # Thursday 3.12.20 Before Market Open: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) # Thursday 3.12.20 After Market Close: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) # Friday 3.13.20 Before Market Open: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) # Friday 3.13.20 After Market Close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]()) NONE. # Adobe Inc.$336.77

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, March 12, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.23 per share on revenue of$3.04 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately$2.23 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 29.65% with revenue increasing by 16.88%. Short interest has decreased by 38.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.9% above its 200 day moving average of $303.70. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, February 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,109 contracts of the$400.00 call expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.1% move in recent quarters.

# Thor Industries, Inc. $70.04 Thor Industries, Inc. (THO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, March 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is$0.76 per share on revenue of $1.79 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is$0.84 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 16.92% with revenue increasing by 38.70%. Short interest has decreased by 12.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.0% above its 200 day moving average of $62.53. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters. # (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # ULTA Beauty$256.58

ULTA Beauty (ULTA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, March 12, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.71 per share on revenue of$2.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 2.77% with revenue increasing by 7.78%. Short interest has increased by 8.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.5% below its 200 day moving average of$283.43. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 15.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.7% move in recent quarters.

# Sogou Inc. $3.85 Sogou Inc. (SOGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 AM ET on Monday, March 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is$0.09 per share on revenue of $303.08 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is$0.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $290.00 million to$310.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 28.57% with revenue increasing by 1.78%. Short interest has increased by 6.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 27.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.7% below its 200 day moving average of $4.57. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.8% move on earnings in recent quarters. # (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # DocuSign$84.02

DocuSign (DOCU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, March 12, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.05 per share on revenue of$267.44 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.08 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of$263.00 million to $267.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 600.00% with revenue increasing by 33.90%. Short interest has decreased by 37.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 31.9% above its 200 day moving average of$63.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, March 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,698 contracts of the $87.50 call expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.0% move in recent quarters. # (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # DISCUSS! What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week? I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead wallstreetbets. submitted by bigbear0083 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] ##### Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning March 9th, 2020 Good Saturday morning to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week and month ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 9th, 2020. # Wall Street braces for more market volatility as wild swings become the ‘new normal’ amid coronavirus - (Source) The S&P 500 has never behaved like this, but Wall Street strategists say get used to it. Investors just witnessed the equity benchmark swinging up or down 2% for four days straight in the face of the coronavirus panic. In the index’s history dating back to 1927, this is the first time the S&P 500 had a week of alternating gains and losses of more than 2% from Monday through Thursday, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Daily swings like this over a two-week period were only seen at the peak of the financial crisis and in 2011 when U.S. sovereign debt got its first-ever downgrade, the firm said. “The message to all investors is that they should expect this volatility to continue. This should be considered the new normal going forward,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E-Trade. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped north of 1,000 points twice in the past week, only to erase the quadruple-digit gains in the subsequent sessions. The coronavirus outbreak kept investors on edge as global cases of the infections surpassed 100,000. It’s also spreading rapidly in the U.S. California has declared a state of emergency, while the number of cases in New York reached 33. “Uncertainty breeds greater market volatility,” Keith Lerner, SunTrust’s chief market strategist, said in a note. “Much is still unknown about how severe and widespread the coronavirus will become. From a market perspective, what we are seeing is uncomfortable but somewhat typical after shock periods.” # More stimulus? So far, the actions from global central banks and governments in response to the outbreak haven’t triggered a sustainable rebound. The Federal Reserve’s first emergency rate cut since the financial crisis did little to calm investor anxiety. President Donald Trump on Friday signed a sweeping spending bill with an$8.3 billion packageto aid prevention efforts to produce a vaccine for the deadly disease, but stocks extended their heavy rout that day.
“The market is recognizing the global authorities are responding to this,” said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report. “If the market begins to worry they are not doing that sufficiently, then I think we are going to go down ugly. It is helping stocks hold up.”
Essaye said any further stimulus from China and a decent-sized fiscal package from Germany would be positive to the market, but he doesn’t expect the moves to create a huge rebound.
The fed funds future market is now pricing in the possibility of the U.S. central bank cutting by 75 basis points at its March 17-18 meeting.

# Where is the bottom?

Many on Wall Street expect the market to fall further before recovering as the health crisis unfolds.
Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank’s chief equity strategist, sees a bottom for the S&P 500 in the second quarter after stocks falling as much as 20% from their recent peak.
“The magnitude of the selloff in the S&P 500 so far has further to go; and in terms of duration, just two weeks in, it is much too early to declare this episode as being done,” Chadha said in a note. “We do view the impacts on macro and earnings growth as being relatively short-lived and the market eventually looking through them.”
Deutsche Bank maintained its year-end target of 3,250 for the S&P 500, which would represent a 10% gain from here and a flat return for 2020.
Strategists are also urging patience during this heightened volatility, cautioning against panic selling.
“It is during times like these that investors need to maintain a longer-term perspective and stick to their investment process rather than making knee-jerk, binary decisions,” Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note.

# A "Run of the Mill" Drawdown

If you're like us, you've heard a lot of people reference the recent equity declines as a sign that the market is pricing in some sort of Armageddon in the US economy. While comments like that make for great soundbites, a little perspective is in order. Since the S&P 500's high on February 19th, the S&P 500 is down 12.8%. In the chart below, we show the S&P 500's annual maximum drawdown by year going back to 1928. In the entire history of the index, the median maximum drawdown from a YTD high is 13.05%. In other words, this year's decline is actually less than normal. Perhaps due to the fact that we have only seen one larger-than-average drawdown in the last eight years is why this one feels so bad.
The fact that the current decline has only been inline with the historical norm raises a number of questions. For example, if the market has already priced in the worst-case scenario, going out and adding some equity exposure would be a no brainer. However, if we're only in the midst of a 'normal' drawdown in the equity market as the coronavirus outbreak threatens to put the economy into a recession, one could argue that things for the stock market could get worse before they get better, especially when we know that the market can be prone to over-reaction in both directions. The fact is that nobody knows right now how this entire outbreak will play out. If it really is a black swan, the market definitely has further to fall and now would present a great opportunity to sell more equities. However, if it proves to be temporary and after a quarter or two resolves itself and the economy gets back on the path it was on at the start of the year, then the magnitude of the current decline is probably appropriate. As they say, that's what makes a market!

# Long-Term Treasuries Go Haywire

Take a good luck at today's moves in long-term US Treasury yields, because chances are you won't see moves of this magnitude again soon. Let's start with the yield on the 30-year US Treasury. Today's decline of 29 basis points in the yield will go down as the largest one-day decline in the yield on the 30-year since 2009. For some perspective, there have only been 25 other days since 1977 where the yield saw a larger one day decline.
That doesn't even tell the whole story, though. As shown in the chart below, every other time the yield saw a sharper one-day decline, the actual yield of the 30-year was much higher, and in most other cases it was much, much higher.
To show this another way, the percentage change in the yield on the 30-year has never been seen before, and it's not even close. Now, before the chart crime police come calling, we realize showing a percentage change of a percentage is not the most accurate representation, but we wanted to show this for illustrative purposes only.
Finally, with long-term interest rates plummetting we wanted to provide an update on the performance of the Austrian 100-year bond. That's now back at record highs, begging the question, why is the US not flooding the market with long-term debt?

# It Doesn't Get Much Worse Than This For Crude Oil

Crude oil prices are down close to 10% today in what is shaping up to be the worst day for crude oil since late 2014. That's more than five years.
Today's decline is pretty much a continuation of what has been a one-way trade for the commodity ever since the US drone strike on Iranian general Soleimani. The last time prices were this low was around Christmas 2018.
With today's decline, crude oil is now off to its worst start to a year in a generation falling 32%. Since 1984, the only other year that was worse was 1986 when the year started out with a decline of 50% through March 6th. If you're looking for a bright spot, in 1986, prices rose 36% over the remainder of the year. The only other year where crude oil kicked off the year with a 30% decline was in 1991 after the first Iraq war. Over the remainder of that year, prices rose a more modest 5%.

# 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaks Below 1%

Despite strong market gains on Wednesday, March 4, 2020, the on-the-run 10-year Treasury yield ended the day below 1% for the first time ever and has posted additional declines in real time, sitting at 0.92% intraday as this blog is being written. “The decline in yields has been remarkable,” said LPL Research Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “The 10-year Treasury yield has dipped below 1%, and today’s declines are likely to make the recent run lower the largest decline of the cycle.”
As shown in LPL Research’s chart of the day, the current decline in the 10-year Treasury yield without a meaningful reversal (defined as at least 0.75%) is approaching the decline seen in 2011 and 2012 and would need about another two months to be the longest decline in length of time. At the same time, no prior decline has lasted forever and a pattern of declines and increases has been normal.
What are some things that can push the 10-year Treasury yield lower?
• A shrinking but still sizable yield advantage over other developed market sovereign debt
• Added stock volatility if downside risks to economic growth from the coronavirus increase
• A larger potential premium over shorter-term yields if the Federal Reserve aggressively cuts interest rates
What are some things that can push the 10-year Treasury yield higher?
• A second half economic rebound acting a catalyst for a Treasury sell-off
• As yields move lower, investors may increasingly seek more attractive sources of income
• Any dollar weakness could lead to some selling by international investors
• Longer maturity Treasuries are looking like an increasingly crowded trade, potentially adding energy to any sell-off
On balance, our view remains that the prospect of an economic rebound over the second half points to the potential for interest rates moving higher. At the same time, we still see some advantage in the potential diversification benefits of intermediate maturity high-quality bonds, especially during periods of market stress. We continue to recommend that suitable investors consider keeping a bond portfolio’s sensitivity to changes in interest rates below that of the benchmark Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index by emphasizing short to intermediate maturity bonds, but do not believe it’s time to pile into very short maturities despite the 10-year Treasury yield sitting at historically low levels.

# U.S. Jobs Growth Marches On

While stock markets continue to be extremely volatile as they come to terms with how the coronavirus may affect global growth, the U.S. job market has remained remarkably robust. Continued U.S. jobs data resilience in the face of headwinds from the coronavirus outbreak may be a key factor in prolonging the expansion, given how important the strength of the U.S. consumer has been late into this expansion.
The U.S. Department of Labor today reported that U.S. nonfarm payroll data had a strong showing of 273,000 jobs added in February, topping the expectation of every Bloomberg-surveyed economist, with an additional upward revision of 85,000 additional jobs for December 2019 and January 2020. This has brought the current unemployment rate back to its 50-year low of 3.5%. So far, it appears it’s too soon for any effects of the coronavirus to have been felt in the jobs numbers. (Note: The survey takes place in the middle of each month.)
On Wednesday, ADP released its private payroll data (excluding government jobs), which increased by 183,000 in February, also handily beating market expectations. Most of these jobs were added in the service sector, with 44,000 added in the leisure and hospitality sector, and another 31,000 in trade/transportation/utilities. Both of these areas could be at risk of potential cutbacks if consumers start to avoid eating out or other leisure pursuits due to coronavirus fears.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, payrolls remain strong, and any effects of the virus outbreaks most likely would be felt in coming months.
“February’s jobs report shows the 113th straight month that the U.S. jobs market has grown,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “That’s an incredible run and highlights how the U.S. consumer has become key to extending the expansion, especially given setbacks to global growth from the coronavirus outbreak.”
While there is bound to be some drag on future jobs data from the coronavirus-related slowdown, we would anticipate that the effects of this may be transitory. We believe economic fundamentals continue to suggest the possibility of a second-half-of-the–year economic rebound.

# Down January & Down February: S&P 500 Posts Full-Year Gain Just 43.75% of Time

The combination of a down January and a down February has come about 17 times, including this year, going back to 1950. Rest of the year and full-year performance has taken a rather sizable hit following the previous 16 occurrences. March through December S&P 500 average performance drops to 2.32% compared to 7.69% in all years. Full-year performance is even worse with S&P 500 average turning to a loss of 4.91% compared to an average gain of 9.14% in all years. All hope for 2020 is not lost as seven of the 16 past down January and down February years did go on to log gains over the last 10 months and full year while six enjoyed double-digit gains from March to December.

# Take Caution After Emergency Rate Cut

Today’s big rally was an encouraging sign that the markets are becoming more comfortable with the public health, monetary and political handling of the situation. But the history of these “emergency” or “surprise” rate cuts by the Fed between meetings suggest some caution remains in order.
The table here shows that these surprise cuts between meetings have really only “worked” once in the past 20+ years. In 1998 when the Fed and the plunge protection team acted swiftly and in a coordinated manner to stave off the fallout from the financial crisis caused by the collapse of the Russian ruble and the highly leveraged Long Term Capital Management hedge fund markets responded well. This was not the case during the extended bear markets of 2001-2002 and 2007-2009.
Bottom line: if this is a short-term impact like the 1998 financial crisis the market should recover sooner rather than later. But if the economic impact of coronavirus virus is prolonged, the market is more likely to languish.

# STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 6th, 2020

Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
• $ADBE •$DKS
• $AVGO •$THO
• $ULTA •$WORK
• $DG •$SFIX
• $SOGO •$DOCU
• $INO •$CLDR
• $INSG •$SOHU
• $BTAI •$ORCL
• $HEAR •$NVAX
• $ADDYY •$GPS
• $AKBA •$PDD
• $CYOU •$FNV
• $MTNB •$NERV
• $MTN •$BEST
• $PRTY •$NINE
• $AZUL •$UNFI
• $PRPL •$VSLR
• $KLZE •$ZUO
• $DVAX •$EXPR
• $VRA •$AXSM
• $CDMO •$CASY
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

NONE.

Broadcom Limited (AVGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, March 12, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $5.34 per share on revenue of$5.93 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $5.45 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.65% with revenue increasing by 2.44%. Short interest has decreased by 15.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 15.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.7% below its 200 day moving average of$291.95. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,197 contracts of the $260.00 put expiring on Friday, April 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters. # (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # Thor Industries, Inc.$70.04

Thor Industries, Inc. (THO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, March 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.76 per share on revenue of$1.79 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.84 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 16.92% with revenue increasing by 38.70%. Short interest has decreased by 12.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.0% above its 200 day moving average of$62.53. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.

Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, March 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.06 per share on revenue of$452.96 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of$447.00 million to $455.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 50.00% with revenue increasing by 22.33%. Short interest has decreased by 4.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 16.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.1% below its 200 day moving average of$24.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, February 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,026 contracts of the $35.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 28.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 15.2% move in recent quarters. # (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # Sogou Inc.$3.85

Sogou Inc. (SOGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 AM ET on Monday, March 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.09 per share on revenue of$303.08 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of$290.00 million to $310.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 28.57% with revenue increasing by 1.78%. Short interest has increased by 6.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 27.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.7% below its 200 day moving average of$4.57. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.

# DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket.

# Boolean data type

In computer science, the Boolean data type is a data type that has one of two possible values (usually denoted true and false) which is intended to represent the two truth values of logic and Boolean algebra. It is named after George Boole, who first defined an algebraic system of logic in the mid 19th century. The Boolean data type is primarily associated with conditional) statements, which allow different actions by changing control flow depending on whether a programmer-specified Boolean condition evaluates to true or false. It is a special case of a more general logical data type (see probabilistic logic)—logic doesn't always need to be Boolean.

## Generalities

In programming languages with a built-in Boolean data type, such as Pascal) and Java), the comparison operators such as > and ≠ are usually defined to return a Boolean value. Conditional and iterative commands may be defined to test Boolean-valued expressions.
Languages with no explicit Boolean data type, like C90 and Lisp), may still represent truth values by some other data type. Common Lisp uses an empty list for false, and any other value for true. The C programming language uses an integer) type, where relational expressions like i > j and logical expressions connected by && and || are defined to have value 1 if true and 0 if false, whereas the test parts of if , while , for , etc., treat any non-zero value as true.[1][2] Indeed, a Boolean variable may be regarded (and implemented) as a numerical variable with one binary digit (bit), which can store only two values. The implementation of Booleans in computers are most likely represented as a full word), rather than a bit; this is usually due to the ways computers transfer blocks of information.
Most programming languages, even those with no explicit Boolean type, have support for Boolean algebraic operations such as conjunction (AND , & , * ), disjunction (OR , | , + ), equivalence (EQV , = , == ), exclusive or/non-equivalence (XOR , NEQV , ^ , != ), and negation (NOT , ~ , ! ).
In some languages, like Ruby), Smalltalk, and Alice) the true and false values belong to separate classes), i.e., True and False , respectively, so there is no one Boolean type.
In SQL, which uses a three-valued logic for explicit comparisons because of its special treatment of Nulls), the Boolean data type (introduced in SQL:1999) is also defined to include more than two truth values, so that SQL Booleans can store all logical values resulting from the evaluation of predicates in SQL. A column of Boolean type can also be restricted to just TRUE and FALSE though.

## ALGOL and the built-in boolean type

One of the earliest programming languages to provide an explicit boolean data type is ALGOL 60 (1960) with values true and false and logical operators denoted by symbols ' ∧ {\displaystyle \wedge } 📷' (and), ' ∨ {\displaystyle \vee } 📷' (or), ' ⊃ {\displaystyle \supset } 📷' (implies), ' ≡ {\displaystyle \equiv } 📷' (equivalence), and ' ¬ {\displaystyle \neg } 📷' (not). Due to input device and character set limits on many computers of the time, however, most compilers used alternative representations for many of the operators, such as AND or 'AND' .
This approach with boolean as a built-in (either primitive or otherwise predefined) data type was adopted by many later programming languages, such as Simula 67 (1967), ALGOL 68 (1970),[3] Pascal) (1970), Ada) (1980), Java) (1995), and C#) (2000), among others.

## Fortran

The first version of FORTRAN (1957) and its successor FORTRAN II (1958) have no logical values or operations; even the conditional IF statement takes an arithmetic expression and branches to one of three locations according to its sign; see arithmetic IF. FORTRAN IV (1962), however, follows the ALGOL 60 example by providing a Boolean data type (LOGICAL ), truth literals (.TRUE. and .FALSE. ), Boolean-valued numeric comparison operators (.EQ. , .GT. , etc.), and logical operators (.NOT. , .AND. , .OR. ). In FORMAT statements, a specific format descriptor ('L ') is provided for the parsing or formatting of logical values.[4]

## Lisp and Scheme

The language Lisp) (1958) never had a built-in Boolean data type. Instead, conditional constructs like cond assume that the logical value false is represented by the empty list () , which is defined to be the same as the special atom nil or NIL ; whereas any other s-expression is interpreted as true. For convenience, most modern dialects of Lisp predefine the atom t to have value t , so that t can be used as a mnemonic notation for true.
This approach (any value can be used as a Boolean value) was retained in most Lisp dialects (Common Lisp, Scheme), Emacs Lisp), and similar models were adopted by many scripting languages, even ones having a distinct Boolean type or Boolean values; although which values are interpreted as false and which are true vary from language to language. In Scheme, for example, the false value is an atom distinct from the empty list, so the latter is interpreted as true.

The language Pascal) (1970) introduced the concept of programmer-defined enumerated types. A built-in Boolean data type was then provided as a predefined enumerated type with values FALSE and TRUE . By definition, all comparisons, logical operations, and conditional statements applied to and/or yielded Boolean values. Otherwise, the Boolean type had all the facilities which were available for enumerated types in general, such as ordering and use as indices. In contrast, converting between Boolean s and integers (or any other types) still required explicit tests or function calls, as in ALGOL 60. This approach (Boolean is an enumerated type) was adopted by most later languages which had enumerated types, such as Modula, Ada), and Haskell).

## C, C++, Objective-C, AWK

Initial implementations of the language C) (1972) provided no Boolean type, and to this day Boolean values are commonly represented by integers (int s) in C programs. The comparison operators (> , == , etc.) are defined to return a signed integer (int ) result, either 0 (for false) or 1 (for true). Logical operators (&& , || , ! , etc.) and condition-testing statements (if , while ) assume that zero is false and all other values are true.
After enumerated types (enum s) were added to the American National Standards Institute version of C, ANSI C (1989), many C programmers got used to defining their own Boolean types as such, for readability reasons. However, enumerated types are equivalent to integers according to the language standards; so the effective identity between Booleans and integers is still valid for C programs.
Standard C) (since C99) provides a boolean type, called _Bool . By including the header stdbool.h , one can use the more intuitive name bool and the constants true and false . The language guarantees that any two true values will compare equal (which was impossible to achieve before the introduction of the type). Boolean values still behave as integers, can be stored in integer variables, and used anywhere integers would be valid, including in indexing, arithmetic, parsing, and formatting. This approach (Boolean values are just integers) has been retained in all later versions of C. Note, that this does not mean that any integer value can be stored in a boolean variable.
C++ has a separate Boolean data type bool , but with automatic conversions from scalar and pointer values that are very similar to those of C. This approach was adopted also by many later languages, especially by some scripting languages such as AWK.
Objective-C also has a separate Boolean data type BOOL , with possible values being YES or NO , equivalents of true and false respectively.[5] Also, in Objective-C compilers that support C99, C's _Bool type can be used, since Objective-C is a superset of C.

## Perl and Lua

Perl has no boolean data type. Instead, any value can behave as boolean in boolean context (condition of if or while statement, argument of && or || , etc.). The number 0 , the strings "0" and "" , the empty list () , and the special value undef evaluate to false.[6] All else evaluates to true.
Lua) has a boolean data type, but non-boolean values can also behave as booleans. The non-value nil evaluates to false, whereas every other data type always evaluates to true, regardless of value.

## Tcl

Tcl has no separate Boolean type. Like in C, the integers 0 (false) and 1 (true - in fact any nonzero integer) are used.[7]
Examples of coding:
set v 1 if { $v } { puts "V is 1 or true" } The above will show "V is 1 or true" since the expression evaluates to '1' set v "" if {$v } ....
The above will render an error as variable 'v' cannot be evaluated as '0' or '1'

## Python, Ruby, and JavaScript

Python), from version 2.3 forward, has a bool type which is a subclass) of int , the standard integer type.[8] It has two possible values: True and False , which are special versions of 1 and 0 respectively and behave as such in arithmetic contexts. Also, a numeric value of zero (integer or fractional), the null value (None ), the empty string), and empty containers (i.e. lists), sets), etc.) are considered Boolean false; all other values are considered Boolean true by default.[9] Classes can define how their instances are treated in a Boolean context through the special method __nonzero__ (Python 2) or __bool__ (Python 3). For containers, __len__ (the special method for determining the length of containers) is used if the explicit Boolean conversion method is not defined.
In Ruby), in contrast, only nil (Ruby's null value) and a special false object are false, all else (including the integer 0 and empty arrays) is true.
In JavaScript, the empty string ("" ), null , undefined , NaN , +0, −0 and false [10] are sometimes called falsy (of which the complement) is truthy) to distinguish between strictly type-checked and coerced Booleans.[11] As opposed to Python, empty containers (arrays , Maps, Sets) are considered truthy. Languages such as PHP also use this approach.

## Next Generation Shell

Next Generation Shell, has Bool type. It has two possible values: true and false . Bool is not interchangeable with Int and have to be converted explicitly if needed. When a Boolean value of an expression is needed (for example in if statement), Bool method is called. Bool method for built-in types is defined such that it returns false for a numeric value of zero, the null value, the empty string), empty containers (i.e. lists), sets), etc.), external processes that exited with non-zero exit code; for other values Bool returns true. Types for which Bool method is defined can be used in Boolean context. When evaluating an expression in Boolean context, If no appropriate Bool method is defined, an exception is thrown.

## SQL

Main article: Null (SQL) § Comparisons with NULL and the three-valued logic (3VL)#Comparisonswith_NULL_and_the_three-valued_logic(3VL))
Booleans appear in SQL when a condition is needed, such as WHERE clause, in form of predicate which is produced by using operators such as comparison operators, IN operator, IS (NOT) NULL etc. However, apart from TRUE and FALSE, these operators can also yield a third state, called UNKNOWN, when comparison with NULL is made.
The treatment of boolean values differs between SQL systems.
For example, in Microsoft SQL Server, boolean value is not supported at all, neither as a standalone data type nor representable as an integer. It shows an error message "An expression of non-boolean type specified in a context where a condition is expected" if a column is directly used in the WHERE clause, e.g. SELECT a FROM t WHERE a , while statement such as SELECT column IS NOT NULL FROM t yields a syntax error. The BIT data type, which can only store integers 0 and 1 apart from NULL, is commonly used as a workaround to store Boolean values, but workarounds need to be used such as UPDATE t SET flag = IIF(col IS NOT NULL, 1, 0) WHERE flag = 0 to convert between the integer and boolean expression.
In PostgreSQL, there is a distinct BOOLEAN type as in the standard[12] which allows predicates to be stored directly into a BOOLEAN column, and allows using a BOOLEAN column directly as a predicate in WHERE clause.
In MySQL, BOOLEAN is treated as an alias as TINYINT(1)[13], TRUE is the same as integer 1 and FALSE is the same is integer 0.[14], and treats any non-zero integer as true when evaluating conditions.
The SQL92 standard introduced IS (NOT) TRUE, IS (NOT) FALSE, IS (NOT) UNKNOWN operators which evaluate a predicate, which predated the introduction of boolean type in SQL:1999
The SQL:1999 standard introduced a BOOLEAN data type as an optional feature (T031). When restricted by a NOT NULL constraint, a SQL BOOLEAN behaves like Booleans in other languages, which can store only TRUE and FALSE values. However, if it is nullable, which is the default like all other SQL data types, it can have the special null) value also. Although the SQL standard defines three literals) for the BOOLEAN type – TRUE, FALSE, and UNKNOWN – it also says that the NULL BOOLEAN and UNKNOWN "may be used interchangeably to mean exactly the same thing".[15][16] This has caused some controversy because the identification subjects UNKNOWN to the equality comparison rules for NULL. More precisely UNKNOWN = UNKNOWN is not TRUE but UNKNOWN/NULL.[17] As of 2012 few major SQL systems implement the T031 feature.[18] Firebird and PostgreSQL are notable exceptions, although PostgreSQL implements no UNKNOWN literal; NULL can be used instead.[19]

Data typesUninterpreted
Numeric
Pointer)
Text
Composite
Other
Related topics

## References

1. "PostgreSQL: Documentation: 10: 8.6. Boolean Type". www.postgresql.org. Archived from the original on 9 March 2018. Retrieved 1 May 2018.
Categories:

### Languages

• 📷
• 📷

##### Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning March 9th, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week and month ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 9th, 2020.

# Wall Street braces for more market volatility as wild swings become the ‘new normal’ amid coronavirus - (Source)

The S&P 500 has never behaved like this, but Wall Street strategists say get used to it.
Investors just witnessed the equity benchmark swinging up or down 2% for four days straight in the face of the coronavirus panic.
In the index’s history dating back to 1927, this is the first time the S&P 500 had a week of alternating gains and losses of more than 2% from Monday through Thursday, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Daily swings like this over a two-week period were only seen at the peak of the financial crisis and in 2011 when U.S. sovereign debt got its first-ever downgrade, the firm said.
“The message to all investors is that they should expect this volatility to continue. This should be considered the new normal going forward,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E-Trade.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped north of 1,000 points twice in the past week, only to erase the quadruple-digit gains in the subsequent sessions. The coronavirus outbreak kept investors on edge as global cases of the infections surpassed 100,000. It’s also spreading rapidly in the U.S. California has declared a state of emergency, while the number of cases in New York reached 33.
“Uncertainty breeds greater market volatility,” Keith Lerner, SunTrust’s chief market strategist, said in a note. “Much is still unknown about how severe and widespread the coronavirus will become. From a market perspective, what we are seeing is uncomfortable but somewhat typical after shock periods.”

# More stimulus?

So far, the actions from global central banks and governments in response to the outbreak haven’t triggered a sustainable rebound.
The Federal Reserve’s first emergency rate cut since the financial crisis did little to calm investor anxiety. President Donald Trump on Friday signed a sweeping spending bill with an$8.3 billion packageto aid prevention efforts to produce a vaccine for the deadly disease, but stocks extended their heavy rout that day. “The market is recognizing the global authorities are responding to this,” said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report. “If the market begins to worry they are not doing that sufficiently, then I think we are going to go down ugly. It is helping stocks hold up.” Essaye said any further stimulus from China and a decent-sized fiscal package from Germany would be positive to the market, but he doesn’t expect the moves to create a huge rebound. The fed funds future market is now pricing in the possibility of the U.S. central bank cutting by 75 basis points at its March 17-18 meeting. # Where is the bottom? Many on Wall Street expect the market to fall further before recovering as the health crisis unfolds. Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank’s chief equity strategist, sees a bottom for the S&P 500 in the second quarter after stocks falling as much as 20% from their recent peak. “The magnitude of the selloff in the S&P 500 so far has further to go; and in terms of duration, just two weeks in, it is much too early to declare this episode as being done,” Chadha said in a note. “We do view the impacts on macro and earnings growth as being relatively short-lived and the market eventually looking through them.” Deutsche Bank maintained its year-end target of 3,250 for the S&P 500, which would represent a 10% gain from here and a flat return for 2020. Strategists are also urging patience during this heightened volatility, cautioning against panic selling. “It is during times like these that investors need to maintain a longer-term perspective and stick to their investment process rather than making knee-jerk, binary decisions,” Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note. # This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!) # Major Indices for this past week: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!) # Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!) # Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!) # Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!) ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!) ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!) ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!) ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!) ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!) # Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # S&P Sectors for the Past Week: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART! # Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!) ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!) ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!) # A "Run of the Mill" Drawdown If you're like us, you've heard a lot of people reference the recent equity declines as a sign that the market is pricing in some sort of Armageddon in the US economy. While comments like that make for great soundbites, a little perspective is in order. Since the S&P 500's high on February 19th, the S&P 500 is down 12.8%. In the chart below, we show the S&P 500's annual maximum drawdown by year going back to 1928. In the entire history of the index, the median maximum drawdown from a YTD high is 13.05%. In other words, this year's decline is actually less than normal. Perhaps due to the fact that we have only seen one larger-than-average drawdown in the last eight years is why this one feels so bad. The fact that the current decline has only been inline with the historical norm raises a number of questions. For example, if the market has already priced in the worst-case scenario, going out and adding some equity exposure would be a no brainer. However, if we're only in the midst of a 'normal' drawdown in the equity market as the coronavirus outbreak threatens to put the economy into a recession, one could argue that things for the stock market could get worse before they get better, especially when we know that the market can be prone to over-reaction in both directions. The fact is that nobody knows right now how this entire outbreak will play out. If it really is a black swan, the market definitely has further to fall and now would present a great opportunity to sell more equities. However, if it proves to be temporary and after a quarter or two resolves itself and the economy gets back on the path it was on at the start of the year, then the magnitude of the current decline is probably appropriate. As they say, that's what makes a market! ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # Long-Term Treasuries Go Haywire Take a good luck at today's moves in long-term US Treasury yields, because chances are you won't see moves of this magnitude again soon. Let's start with the yield on the 30-year US Treasury. Today's decline of 29 basis points in the yield will go down as the largest one-day decline in the yield on the 30-year since 2009. For some perspective, there have only been 25 other days since 1977 where the yield saw a larger one day decline. ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) That doesn't even tell the whole story, though. As shown in the chart below, every other time the yield saw a sharper one-day decline, the actual yield of the 30-year was much higher, and in most other cases it was much, much higher. ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) To show this another way, the percentage change in the yield on the 30-year has never been seen before, and it's not even close. Now, before the chart crime police come calling, we realize showing a percentage change of a percentage is not the most accurate representation, but we wanted to show this for illustrative purposes only. ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Finally, with long-term interest rates plummetting we wanted to provide an update on the performance of the Austrian 100-year bond. That's now back at record highs, begging the question, why is the US not flooding the market with long-term debt? ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # It Doesn't Get Much Worse Than This For Crude Oil Crude oil prices are down close to 10% today in what is shaping up to be the worst day for crude oil since late 2014. That's more than five years. ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Today's decline is pretty much a continuation of what has been a one-way trade for the commodity ever since the US drone strike on Iranian general Soleimani. The last time prices were this low was around Christmas 2018. ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) With today's decline, crude oil is now off to its worst start to a year in a generation falling 32%. Since 1984, the only other year that was worse was 1986 when the year started out with a decline of 50% through March 6th. If you're looking for a bright spot, in 1986, prices rose 36% over the remainder of the year. The only other year where crude oil kicked off the year with a 30% decline was in 1991 after the first Iraq war. Over the remainder of that year, prices rose a more modest 5%. ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaks Below 1% Despite strong market gains on Wednesday, March 4, 2020, the on-the-run 10-year Treasury yield ended the day below 1% for the first time ever and has posted additional declines in real time, sitting at 0.92% intraday as this blog is being written. “The decline in yields has been remarkable,” said LPL Research Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “The 10-year Treasury yield has dipped below 1%, and today’s declines are likely to make the recent run lower the largest decline of the cycle.” As shown in LPL Research’s chart of the day, the current decline in the 10-year Treasury yield without a meaningful reversal (defined as at least 0.75%) is approaching the decline seen in 2011 and 2012 and would need about another two months to be the longest decline in length of time. At the same time, no prior decline has lasted forever and a pattern of declines and increases has been normal. ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) What are some things that can push the 10-year Treasury yield lower? • A shrinking but still sizable yield advantage over other developed market sovereign debt • Added stock volatility if downside risks to economic growth from the coronavirus increase • A larger potential premium over shorter-term yields if the Federal Reserve aggressively cuts interest rates What are some things that can push the 10-year Treasury yield higher? • A second half economic rebound acting a catalyst for a Treasury sell-off • As yields move lower, investors may increasingly seek more attractive sources of income • Any dollar weakness could lead to some selling by international investors • Longer maturity Treasuries are looking like an increasingly crowded trade, potentially adding energy to any sell-off On balance, our view remains that the prospect of an economic rebound over the second half points to the potential for interest rates moving higher. At the same time, we still see some advantage in the potential diversification benefits of intermediate maturity high-quality bonds, especially during periods of market stress. We continue to recommend that suitable investors consider keeping a bond portfolio’s sensitivity to changes in interest rates below that of the benchmark Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index by emphasizing short to intermediate maturity bonds, but do not believe it’s time to pile into very short maturities despite the 10-year Treasury yield sitting at historically low levels. # U.S. Jobs Growth Marches On While stock markets continue to be extremely volatile as they come to terms with how the coronavirus may affect global growth, the U.S. job market has remained remarkably robust. Continued U.S. jobs data resilience in the face of headwinds from the coronavirus outbreak may be a key factor in prolonging the expansion, given how important the strength of the U.S. consumer has been late into this expansion. The U.S. Department of Labor today reported that U.S. nonfarm payroll data had a strong showing of 273,000 jobs added in February, topping the expectation of every Bloomberg-surveyed economist, with an additional upward revision of 85,000 additional jobs for December 2019 and January 2020. This has brought the current unemployment rate back to its 50-year low of 3.5%. So far, it appears it’s too soon for any effects of the coronavirus to have been felt in the jobs numbers. (Note: The survey takes place in the middle of each month.) On Wednesday, ADP released its private payroll data (excluding government jobs), which increased by 183,000 in February, also handily beating market expectations. Most of these jobs were added in the service sector, with 44,000 added in the leisure and hospitality sector, and another 31,000 in trade/transportation/utilities. Both of these areas could be at risk of potential cutbacks if consumers start to avoid eating out or other leisure pursuits due to coronavirus fears. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, payrolls remain strong, and any effects of the virus outbreaks most likely would be felt in coming months. ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) “February’s jobs report shows the 113th straight month that the U.S. jobs market has grown,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “That’s an incredible run and highlights how the U.S. consumer has become key to extending the expansion, especially given setbacks to global growth from the coronavirus outbreak.” While there is bound to be some drag on future jobs data from the coronavirus-related slowdown, we would anticipate that the effects of this may be transitory. We believe economic fundamentals continue to suggest the possibility of a second-half-of-the–year economic rebound. # Down January & Down February: S&P 500 Posts Full-Year Gain Just 43.75% of Time The combination of a down January and a down February has come about 17 times, including this year, going back to 1950. Rest of the year and full-year performance has taken a rather sizable hit following the previous 16 occurrences. March through December S&P 500 average performance drops to 2.32% compared to 7.69% in all years. Full-year performance is even worse with S&P 500 average turning to a loss of 4.91% compared to an average gain of 9.14% in all years. All hope for 2020 is not lost as seven of the 16 past down January and down February years did go on to log gains over the last 10 months and full year while six enjoyed double-digit gains from March to December. ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # Take Caution After Emergency Rate Cut Today’s big rally was an encouraging sign that the markets are becoming more comfortable with the public health, monetary and political handling of the situation. But the history of these “emergency” or “surprise” rate cuts by the Fed between meetings suggest some caution remains in order. The table here shows that these surprise cuts between meetings have really only “worked” once in the past 20+ years. In 1998 when the Fed and the plunge protection team acted swiftly and in a coordinated manner to stave off the fallout from the financial crisis caused by the collapse of the Russian ruble and the highly leveraged Long Term Capital Management hedge fund markets responded well. This was not the case during the extended bear markets of 2001-2002 and 2007-2009. Bottom line: if this is a short-term impact like the 1998 financial crisis the market should recover sooner rather than later. But if the economic impact of coronavirus virus is prolonged, the market is more likely to languish. ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead- •$ADBE
• $DKS •$AVGO
• $THO •$ULTA
• $WORK •$DG
• $SFIX •$SOGO
• $DOCU •$INO
• $CLDR •$INSG
• $SOHU •$BTAI
• $ORCL •$HEAR
• $NVAX •$ADDYY
• $GPS •$AKBA
• $PDD •$CYOU
• $FNV •$MTNB
• $NERV •$MTN
• $BEST •$PRTY
• $NINE •$AZUL
• $UNFI •$PRPL
• $VSLR •$KLZE
• $ZUO •$DVAX
• $EXPR •$VRA
• $AXSM •$CDMO
• $CASY ###### (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!) ###### (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!) Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers: # Monday 3.9.20 Before Market Open: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) # Monday 3.9.20 After Market Close: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) # Tuesday 3.10.20 Before Market Open: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) # Tuesday 3.10.20 After Market Close: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) # Wednesday 3.11.20 Before Market Open: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) # Wednesday 3.11.20 After Market Close: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) # Thursday 3.12.20 Before Market Open: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) # Thursday 3.12.20 After Market Close: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) # Friday 3.13.20 Before Market Open: ###### (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) # Friday 3.13.20 After Market Close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]()) NONE. # Adobe Inc.$336.77

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, March 12, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.23 per share on revenue of$3.04 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately$2.23 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 29.65% with revenue increasing by 16.88%. Short interest has decreased by 38.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.9% above its 200 day moving average of $303.70. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, February 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,109 contracts of the$400.00 call expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.1% move in recent quarters.

# Thor Industries, Inc. $70.04 Thor Industries, Inc. (THO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, March 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is$0.76 per share on revenue of $1.79 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is$0.84 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 16.92% with revenue increasing by 38.70%. Short interest has decreased by 12.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.0% above its 200 day moving average of $62.53. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters. # (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # ULTA Beauty$256.58

ULTA Beauty (ULTA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, March 12, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.71 per share on revenue of$2.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 2.77% with revenue increasing by 7.78%. Short interest has increased by 8.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.5% below its 200 day moving average of$283.43. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 15.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.7% move in recent quarters.

# Sogou Inc. $3.85 Sogou Inc. (SOGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 AM ET on Monday, March 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is$0.09 per share on revenue of $303.08 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is$0.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $290.00 million to$310.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 28.57% with revenue increasing by 1.78%. Short interest has increased by 6.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 27.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.7% below its 200 day moving average of $4.57. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.8% move on earnings in recent quarters. # (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # DocuSign$84.02

DocuSign (DOCU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, March 12, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.05 per share on revenue of$267.44 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.08 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of$263.00 million to $267.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 600.00% with revenue increasing by 33.90%. Short interest has decreased by 37.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 31.9% above its 200 day moving average of$63.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, March 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,698 contracts of the $87.50 call expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.0% move in recent quarters. # (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # DISCUSS! What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week? I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead stocks. submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments] ##### How to really, truly calculate expected move? Hi everybody. Hopefully this post doesn't sound too rant-y but I'm pretty frustrated by the amount of info out there that I'm not able to pick up on. There just seems to be a million ways to do calculated expected move. Here's what I've gathered so far. There seems to be two general methods: First Method: IV-Based • One Standard Deviation Move = (P) (IV) (DTE/365)^0.5 where P = price, IV = annualized implied volatility, DTE = days to expiration [0] This means that there is a 68% probability that the stock in question will be between -1 and +1 sigma at the date of expiration, a 95% probability between -2 and +2, and a 99% probability between -3 and +3. Sometimes 250-252 is used instead of 365, which seems to be the case when DTE refers to market days until expiration. Is that correct? There are a number of ways to calculate IV. I would appreciate it if somebody could elaborate on which might be best and the differences between them: 1. ThinkOrSwim uses the Bjerksund-Stensland Model [1] - I assume this is the "annualized" implied volatility aforementioned, because it is an IV value assigned to the stock as a whole ... what does that mean? I thought IV values were only calculated for a specific option contract?? 1. As an aside, ToS in particular confuses me because none of the IVs seem to correlate - Exhibit A 2. I thought I might look into how VIX was priced off of SPY [2], as an analog, and use it as a basis for finding IV for any other stock as a whole. I don't know where they got their formula from 3. Backsolve for IV using Black-Scholes [3]. This would only gives one value for IV, which I think only applies to that specific option contract and not to the stock as a whole?? 4. Some websites say to use the IV given that is closest to the desired time period [4] - of course I have no idea how the IV is calculated in the first place (Bjerksund-Stensland again? Black-Scholes?) What's the difference between using the IV of a weekly or a yearly option? 5. Brenner and Subrahmanyam [5] - understood that this seems to be just an approximation. Should I be looking at formulas from 1988, however? A very big question of mine is why there is an implied volatility for the stock as a whole and an implied volatility for every other options contract. I can kind of understand it both ways - why should a later-expiry contract have the same IV as an earlier-expiry contract? On the other hand, why should they be different? Why isn't there just one IV for the stock as a whole? Second Method: Straddle-Based My understanding is that this is more used for binary events like earnings, but in general I've found two methods: • Expected Move = (0.85) (Front Month Straddle) [6] OR • Expected Move = (Price of Straddle close to Desired Time Period) / (Price of Underlying) [7] I have no idea where [5] comes from and I can sort of understand 6 but not really. In the end, I'm just trying to be as accurate as possible. Is there a best, preferred method to calculating the expected move of a stock in a given timeframe? Is there a best, preferred method to calculating IV (I'm inclined to go with ToS's model simply because they're large and trusted). Is there some Python library out there that already does this? For a retail trader like me, does it even matter?? Any help is appreciated. Thanks! submitted by hatitat to options [link] [comments] ##### Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning March 9th, 2020 Good Saturday morning to all of you here on smallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week and month ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 9th, 2020. # Wall Street braces for more market volatility as wild swings become the ‘new normal’ amid coronavirus - (Source) The S&P 500 has never behaved like this, but Wall Street strategists say get used to it. Investors just witnessed the equity benchmark swinging up or down 2% for four days straight in the face of the coronavirus panic. In the index’s history dating back to 1927, this is the first time the S&P 500 had a week of alternating gains and losses of more than 2% from Monday through Thursday, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Daily swings like this over a two-week period were only seen at the peak of the financial crisis and in 2011 when U.S. sovereign debt got its first-ever downgrade, the firm said. “The message to all investors is that they should expect this volatility to continue. This should be considered the new normal going forward,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E-Trade. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped north of 1,000 points twice in the past week, only to erase the quadruple-digit gains in the subsequent sessions. The coronavirus outbreak kept investors on edge as global cases of the infections surpassed 100,000. It’s also spreading rapidly in the U.S. California has declared a state of emergency, while the number of cases in New York reached 33. “Uncertainty breeds greater market volatility,” Keith Lerner, SunTrust’s chief market strategist, said in a note. “Much is still unknown about how severe and widespread the coronavirus will become. From a market perspective, what we are seeing is uncomfortable but somewhat typical after shock periods.” # More stimulus? So far, the actions from global central banks and governments in response to the outbreak haven’t triggered a sustainable rebound. The Federal Reserve’s first emergency rate cut since the financial crisis did little to calm investor anxiety. President Donald Trump on Friday signed a sweeping spending bill with an$8.3 billion packageto aid prevention efforts to produce a vaccine for the deadly disease, but stocks extended their heavy rout that day.
“The market is recognizing the global authorities are responding to this,” said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report. “If the market begins to worry they are not doing that sufficiently, then I think we are going to go down ugly. It is helping stocks hold up.”
Essaye said any further stimulus from China and a decent-sized fiscal package from Germany would be positive to the market, but he doesn’t expect the moves to create a huge rebound.
The fed funds future market is now pricing in the possibility of the U.S. central bank cutting by 75 basis points at its March 17-18 meeting.

# Where is the bottom?

Many on Wall Street expect the market to fall further before recovering as the health crisis unfolds.
Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank’s chief equity strategist, sees a bottom for the S&P 500 in the second quarter after stocks falling as much as 20% from their recent peak.
“The magnitude of the selloff in the S&P 500 so far has further to go; and in terms of duration, just two weeks in, it is much too early to declare this episode as being done,” Chadha said in a note. “We do view the impacts on macro and earnings growth as being relatively short-lived and the market eventually looking through them.”
Deutsche Bank maintained its year-end target of 3,250 for the S&P 500, which would represent a 10% gain from here and a flat return for 2020.
Strategists are also urging patience during this heightened volatility, cautioning against panic selling.
“It is during times like these that investors need to maintain a longer-term perspective and stick to their investment process rather than making knee-jerk, binary decisions,” Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note.

# A "Run of the Mill" Drawdown

If you're like us, you've heard a lot of people reference the recent equity declines as a sign that the market is pricing in some sort of Armageddon in the US economy. While comments like that make for great soundbites, a little perspective is in order. Since the S&P 500's high on February 19th, the S&P 500 is down 12.8%. In the chart below, we show the S&P 500's annual maximum drawdown by year going back to 1928. In the entire history of the index, the median maximum drawdown from a YTD high is 13.05%. In other words, this year's decline is actually less than normal. Perhaps due to the fact that we have only seen one larger-than-average drawdown in the last eight years is why this one feels so bad.
The fact that the current decline has only been inline with the historical norm raises a number of questions. For example, if the market has already priced in the worst-case scenario, going out and adding some equity exposure would be a no brainer. However, if we're only in the midst of a 'normal' drawdown in the equity market as the coronavirus outbreak threatens to put the economy into a recession, one could argue that things for the stock market could get worse before they get better, especially when we know that the market can be prone to over-reaction in both directions. The fact is that nobody knows right now how this entire outbreak will play out. If it really is a black swan, the market definitely has further to fall and now would present a great opportunity to sell more equities. However, if it proves to be temporary and after a quarter or two resolves itself and the economy gets back on the path it was on at the start of the year, then the magnitude of the current decline is probably appropriate. As they say, that's what makes a market!

# Long-Term Treasuries Go Haywire

Take a good luck at today's moves in long-term US Treasury yields, because chances are you won't see moves of this magnitude again soon. Let's start with the yield on the 30-year US Treasury. Today's decline of 29 basis points in the yield will go down as the largest one-day decline in the yield on the 30-year since 2009. For some perspective, there have only been 25 other days since 1977 where the yield saw a larger one day decline.
That doesn't even tell the whole story, though. As shown in the chart below, every other time the yield saw a sharper one-day decline, the actual yield of the 30-year was much higher, and in most other cases it was much, much higher.
To show this another way, the percentage change in the yield on the 30-year has never been seen before, and it's not even close. Now, before the chart crime police come calling, we realize showing a percentage change of a percentage is not the most accurate representation, but we wanted to show this for illustrative purposes only.
Finally, with long-term interest rates plummetting we wanted to provide an update on the performance of the Austrian 100-year bond. That's now back at record highs, begging the question, why is the US not flooding the market with long-term debt?

# It Doesn't Get Much Worse Than This For Crude Oil

Crude oil prices are down close to 10% today in what is shaping up to be the worst day for crude oil since late 2014. That's more than five years.
Today's decline is pretty much a continuation of what has been a one-way trade for the commodity ever since the US drone strike on Iranian general Soleimani. The last time prices were this low was around Christmas 2018.
With today's decline, crude oil is now off to its worst start to a year in a generation falling 32%. Since 1984, the only other year that was worse was 1986 when the year started out with a decline of 50% through March 6th. If you're looking for a bright spot, in 1986, prices rose 36% over the remainder of the year. The only other year where crude oil kicked off the year with a 30% decline was in 1991 after the first Iraq war. Over the remainder of that year, prices rose a more modest 5%.

# 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaks Below 1%

Despite strong market gains on Wednesday, March 4, 2020, the on-the-run 10-year Treasury yield ended the day below 1% for the first time ever and has posted additional declines in real time, sitting at 0.92% intraday as this blog is being written. “The decline in yields has been remarkable,” said LPL Research Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “The 10-year Treasury yield has dipped below 1%, and today’s declines are likely to make the recent run lower the largest decline of the cycle.”
As shown in LPL Research’s chart of the day, the current decline in the 10-year Treasury yield without a meaningful reversal (defined as at least 0.75%) is approaching the decline seen in 2011 and 2012 and would need about another two months to be the longest decline in length of time. At the same time, no prior decline has lasted forever and a pattern of declines and increases has been normal.
What are some things that can push the 10-year Treasury yield lower?
• A shrinking but still sizable yield advantage over other developed market sovereign debt
• Added stock volatility if downside risks to economic growth from the coronavirus increase
• A larger potential premium over shorter-term yields if the Federal Reserve aggressively cuts interest rates
What are some things that can push the 10-year Treasury yield higher?
• A second half economic rebound acting a catalyst for a Treasury sell-off
• As yields move lower, investors may increasingly seek more attractive sources of income
• Any dollar weakness could lead to some selling by international investors
• Longer maturity Treasuries are looking like an increasingly crowded trade, potentially adding energy to any sell-off
On balance, our view remains that the prospect of an economic rebound over the second half points to the potential for interest rates moving higher. At the same time, we still see some advantage in the potential diversification benefits of intermediate maturity high-quality bonds, especially during periods of market stress. We continue to recommend that suitable investors consider keeping a bond portfolio’s sensitivity to changes in interest rates below that of the benchmark Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index by emphasizing short to intermediate maturity bonds, but do not believe it’s time to pile into very short maturities despite the 10-year Treasury yield sitting at historically low levels.

# U.S. Jobs Growth Marches On

While stock markets continue to be extremely volatile as they come to terms with how the coronavirus may affect global growth, the U.S. job market has remained remarkably robust. Continued U.S. jobs data resilience in the face of headwinds from the coronavirus outbreak may be a key factor in prolonging the expansion, given how important the strength of the U.S. consumer has been late into this expansion.
The U.S. Department of Labor today reported that U.S. nonfarm payroll data had a strong showing of 273,000 jobs added in February, topping the expectation of every Bloomberg-surveyed economist, with an additional upward revision of 85,000 additional jobs for December 2019 and January 2020. This has brought the current unemployment rate back to its 50-year low of 3.5%. So far, it appears it’s too soon for any effects of the coronavirus to have been felt in the jobs numbers. (Note: The survey takes place in the middle of each month.)
On Wednesday, ADP released its private payroll data (excluding government jobs), which increased by 183,000 in February, also handily beating market expectations. Most of these jobs were added in the service sector, with 44,000 added in the leisure and hospitality sector, and another 31,000 in trade/transportation/utilities. Both of these areas could be at risk of potential cutbacks if consumers start to avoid eating out or other leisure pursuits due to coronavirus fears.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, payrolls remain strong, and any effects of the virus outbreaks most likely would be felt in coming months.
“February’s jobs report shows the 113th straight month that the U.S. jobs market has grown,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “That’s an incredible run and highlights how the U.S. consumer has become key to extending the expansion, especially given setbacks to global growth from the coronavirus outbreak.”
While there is bound to be some drag on future jobs data from the coronavirus-related slowdown, we would anticipate that the effects of this may be transitory. We believe economic fundamentals continue to suggest the possibility of a second-half-of-the–year economic rebound.

# Down January & Down February: S&P 500 Posts Full-Year Gain Just 43.75% of Time

The combination of a down January and a down February has come about 17 times, including this year, going back to 1950. Rest of the year and full-year performance has taken a rather sizable hit following the previous 16 occurrences. March through December S&P 500 average performance drops to 2.32% compared to 7.69% in all years. Full-year performance is even worse with S&P 500 average turning to a loss of 4.91% compared to an average gain of 9.14% in all years. All hope for 2020 is not lost as seven of the 16 past down January and down February years did go on to log gains over the last 10 months and full year while six enjoyed double-digit gains from March to December.

# Take Caution After Emergency Rate Cut

Today’s big rally was an encouraging sign that the markets are becoming more comfortable with the public health, monetary and political handling of the situation. But the history of these “emergency” or “surprise” rate cuts by the Fed between meetings suggest some caution remains in order.
The table here shows that these surprise cuts between meetings have really only “worked” once in the past 20+ years. In 1998 when the Fed and the plunge protection team acted swiftly and in a coordinated manner to stave off the fallout from the financial crisis caused by the collapse of the Russian ruble and the highly leveraged Long Term Capital Management hedge fund markets responded well. This was not the case during the extended bear markets of 2001-2002 and 2007-2009.
Bottom line: if this is a short-term impact like the 1998 financial crisis the market should recover sooner rather than later. But if the economic impact of coronavirus virus is prolonged, the market is more likely to languish.
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
• $ADBE •$DKS
• $AVGO •$THO
• $ULTA •$WORK
• $DG •$SFIX
• $SOGO •$DOCU
• $INO •$CLDR
• $INSG •$SOHU
• $BTAI •$ORCL
• $HEAR •$NVAX
• $ADDYY •$GPS
• $AKBA •$PDD
• $CYOU •$FNV
• $MTNB •$NERV
• $MTN •$BEST
• $PRTY •$NINE
• $AZUL •$UNFI
• $PRPL •$VSLR
• $KLZE •$ZUO
• $DVAX •$EXPR
• $VRA •$AXSM
• $CDMO •$CASY
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

NONE.

Broadcom Limited (AVGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, March 12, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $5.34 per share on revenue of$5.93 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $5.45 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.65% with revenue increasing by 2.44%. Short interest has decreased by 15.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 15.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.7% below its 200 day moving average of$291.95. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,197 contracts of the $260.00 put expiring on Friday, April 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters. # (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # Thor Industries, Inc.$70.04

Thor Industries, Inc. (THO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, March 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.76 per share on revenue of$1.79 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.84 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 16.92% with revenue increasing by 38.70%. Short interest has decreased by 12.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.0% above its 200 day moving average of$62.53. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.

Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, March 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.06 per share on revenue of$452.96 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of$447.00 million to $455.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 50.00% with revenue increasing by 22.33%. Short interest has decreased by 4.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 16.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.1% below its 200 day moving average of$24.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, February 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,026 contracts of the $35.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 28.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 15.2% move in recent quarters. # (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) # Sogou Inc.$3.85

Sogou Inc. (SOGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 AM ET on Monday, March 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.09 per share on revenue of$303.08 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of$290.00 million to $310.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 28.57% with revenue increasing by 1.78%. Short interest has increased by 6.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 27.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.7% below its 200 day moving average of$4.57. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.

# DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
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